Image for ReachTEL – Tas Federal BaByLon Still Falling

On these figures, the Liberal Party would be likely to win all these seats if an election was proverbially “held now”.  The only one they could be very confident of winning, however, would be Braddon.  I say this because while the Liberal leads in Bass and Lyons are notionally just outside the poll’s margin of error, national federal ReachTELs have produced results that have been slightly more favourable to the Coalition than other polls, and therefore it appears likely that their robopolling/scaling methods have a slight house effect in favour of the Coalition, at least for federal polling.  Mark The Ballot currently assesses the difference as being about 1.3 points in the Coalition’s favour.  Until there is evidence otherwise, this should be mentally deducted from the Coalition’s lead in these three seats, making Lyons and Bass relatively close.

Furthermore the use of relatively heavy scaling in robopolls increases the effective margin of error of the poll somewhat.  So it is plausible on these results that Labor would actually win either Bass or Lyons (I suggest more probably Lyons since it seems unlikely Labor is really quite as far behind there as Bass.)  All the same it is not a good position for Labor to be in, and it shows that despite the return to Rudd, Tasmania is still a serious problem for federal Labor.  As the party patches up holes in other states, but without showing clear signs of winning a brace of seats anywhere, this is a problem that is only going to get bigger.

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